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Shinnecock Hills Golf Club returns as host of the U.S. Open for the sixth time, and third time since 2000. The 2018 edition saw brilliant play and a fair amount of controversy en route to Brooks Koepka winning at 1-over. The USGA will allow Shinnecock to show its teeth, but I suspect they will take steps to avoid what happened in the third round that week, when many players complained that they lost the course.
Storyline number one in the field for me this week is Scottie Scheffler in his first attempt to complete the career Grand Slam. The 2026 version of Scottie has been fascinating. A quick look at his results page and you still see the dominant, best player in the world that we are accustomed to. He has seven top 4s in 12 starts and his Strokes Gained statistics in every category are almost all positive (46 of the 48 possible tournament data points this year). But the eye-test and vibes from Scottie this year do not match what we saw from him the past few years. He still is the overwhelming favorite at +550 (with Rory in second with +1200 odds) but I can’t confidently bet him.
If it’s not Scottie’s week to join the six men who have won the career Grand Slam, whose week might it be?
Here are my three favorite outright winner bets this week. All odds are the best available according to OddsChecker.com at the time of publishing.
Tommy Fleetwood 24-1
Tommy is an ideal fit any way you handicap this 126th edition of the U.S. Open. He has solid current form with three top-11s in his last four starts. Great course fit given his only non-excellent Strokes Gained category is driving distance and Shinnecock strongly favors accuracy over distance according to Data Golf. Not to mention his last round at Shinnecock was a Sunday 63 that, at the time, tied the lowest round in U.S. Open history and led to a second-place finish. Making course history a positive data point as well.
The only negative would be a rather poor resume at U.S. Opens since 2018. In the seven championships from 2019-2025, he tallied three missed cuts and only two top 20s. I am overlooking that, especially at the decent price of +2400. Fleetwood is my pick to win this week and get his second PGA Tour win and first major.
Russell Henley 40-1
I’ll admit it, I am infatuated with taking Henley on tough golf courses. It has yet to pay off with a winning ticket, but I will be there when it does! Henley has finished in the top 14 in the last three U.S. Opens and finished T3 at this year’s Masters. His win at Bay Hill last year shows he can take that jump from a good top 10 play to winning on difficult courses. Henley’s driving accuracy (2nd best in the field) places him second in Data Golf’s course fit model. Course fit, a recent win, and proven toughness on challenging layouts makes Henley a fantastic pick at 40-1.
Robert MacIntyre 70-1
The Scottish lefty may feel at home in more ways than one this week at Shinnecock. The Tartan Army has stationed itself prominently in Boston, some 160 miles or so away from Shinnecock, for Scotland’s first two World Cup games. I would not be surprised if a large group of them planned a couple of days at the U.S. Open this week. Plus, the links style of Shinnecock frequently sees high winds, which Bobby Mac is more than comfortable with.
That detail alone piqued my interest, but his T15 and solid Strokes Gained numbers last week in Canada helped me land on the Scot in hopes he has found his early season form. I’ll take 70-1 for a top 20 player in the world who finished second in last year’s U.S. Open.
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