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The final major of the year returns to Royal Birkdale for the first time since Michael Greller had to “go get that!” along the way to Jordan Spieth’s dramatic third major victory. Spieth still sits on three majors 9-years later and is 80-1 to win at Birkdale this week. I don’t fancy his chances, but it would be a wonderful story if he got back into contention.
Only four golfers enter the week with 20-1 or shorter odds: Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Tommy Fleetwood and Matthew Fitzpatrick. Scheffler comes into the week off his first missed cut since 2022, leading to his longest pre-tournament odds (+750) in a major since the 2022 Open.
From a data perspective, Royal Birkdale is highlighted by distance being a relative non-factor. It always helps to hit it far, but this week that impact is very small. Around the green and approach play are expected to be the determining factors this week at a firm Royal Birkdale.
Here are a few of my favorite picks to hoist the Claret Jug at the end of the week. All odds displayed are the best available at the time of publishing according to oddschecker.
Tyrrell Hatton (36-1)
Tyrrell last three starts include a win on LIV and a T7 and T17 finish in the U.S. Open and Scottish Open, good enough for 6th in total strokes gained over the past three months. Hatton’s short game and ball-striking are both well above average. Hatton is a bit of a showman and can thrive in his grouping with Scottie and Bryson. As long as the driver doesn’t get too wayward, I believe Hatton will contend this week and possibly win his first career major.
Patrick Reed (67-1)
Patrick Reed’s game and mentality should help him thrive at a Royal Birkdale Open. He’s not the longest driver and has always been considered a grinder. The most surprising thing to me is that he hasn’t had more success at Opens in the past. His best finish is 10th place at the 2019 Open and he missed the cut the last time it was at Royal Birkdale. But his short game and iron play this year, along with a 67-1 number, makes him worth a wager.
Alex Fitzpatrick (75-1)
Although his older brother Matt is perhaps the most popular pick this week and for good reason, I’m zagging a bit and taking Alex at the much higher odds. Alex has been in great form since he and Matt won the Zurich together in April. He’s 4th in stroked gained approach and 14th in total strokes gained among all golfers the last three months, according to DataGolf.com. A missed cut last week because of poor putting might be driving up his odds a bit and I am happy to take it.
Notably, Alex is off in just the fifth group on Thursday morning's tee sheet. That should mean he'll play in calm conditions with a comfortable grouping in Rickie Fowler and Robert MacIntyre. Hopefully he can take advantage early and stay around the top of the leaderboard all week.
The AI Pick: Matt Fitzpatrick (18.5-1)
I asked four different AI models to provide their top bet for the week, factoring in odds. Three had him as their top pick and the other had him second. Use that information however you wish!
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