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The best golfers in the world make their way back to Aronimink for a major championship for the first time since 1962, when Gary Player won his first PGA Championship. Since then, the PGA Tour has hosted three events at the Donald Ross gem, including the A&T National in July of 2010 and 2011 and the BMW Championship in September of 2018, the third event in that year’s FedExCup Playoffs. Winners of those events were Nick Watney, Justin Rose and Keegan Bradley, giving some insight into the type of player that might come out on top this week at "the 'Mink."
How the par-70 at just under 7,400 yards will play in the month of May is an unknown. Only two players in the field have played in all three events since 2010: Rickie Fowler and Justin Rose. Rose owns by far the best resume at Aronimink, having won in 2010 and lost in a playoff in 2018. I want to love Rose this week, coming back to Philadelphia where he won his lone major and has great history at Aronimink. But his recent equipment change to McLaren Golf clubs and lackluster ball-striking numbers in his two tournaments with the new clubs is scaring me away.
So, who will win the 2026 PGA Championship? I am going to take three players in the mid-tier to longshot range to win and finish in the top 10 this week. I am fearful of the big three of Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy and Cameron Young (yes, I’ve added Cameron for now), as there are plenty of reasons to pick each of them this week. If I could only pick one of these, I’d take Young at 15-1.
All odds listed are the best odds available at time of publishing via oddschecker. As a reminder, I am a casual bettor who likes to look at the data to make educated bets each week.
Patrick Cantlay (50-1 to win; +550 top 10)
Cantlay tees it up at the PGA Championship on the heels of four straight top-12s and five straight weeks gaining more than 1.5 shots to the field, according to DataGolf.com. The pros to picking Cantlay: his player profile of above average putting and distance with elite iron play and short game is ideal for Aronimink and he has great recent form. The con: he has never won a major and has not won a PGA Tour event since 2022.
Even so, his fit for Aronimink is solid enough that I am willing to bet he gets into the mix on Sunday and maybe we get fortunate and he closes the deal for the first time in a major.
Rickie Fowler (66-1 to win; +550 top 10)
Could this be a trap? Yes. But Rickie’s recent play has moved past the fool’s-gold stage after yet another strong showing at the Truist. His T2 finish at Quail Hollow means he's on a run of three straight top 10s. Plus, his putter is heating up at the right time; Truist was his best week on the greens this year. I would not be shocked if this week turns into a bit of a putting contest, something Rickie would welcome with open arms. He also has played in all three events at Aronimink since 2010 and has a T13 and T8 finish, though distant enough in the past that I'm not weighing it much.
I can easily imagine the Philly crowd getting behind an orange-clad Rickie on the back nine come Sunday afternoon. It would be a wonderful story.
J.J. Spaun (86-1 to win; +700 top 10)
Somehow, the reigning U.S. Open champ is flying under the radar. Spaun won the Valero Texas Open in early April, finished top 5 last week at the Truist, and is less than a year removed from winning a major championship, yet you still can find 100-1 odds on the American to win this week at Aronimink, a course that should suite his elite ball-striking and above-average short game well. It's a tall task to get the win, but I believe he can get into contention, making it a ticket you'd be happy to have come Sunday morning.
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