One of the strongest El Niño cycles in history is coming this winter. Here's what that could mean for golfers

As a class of people, golfers spend more time checking weather apps on their phones than most. Show me a golfer who claims to have never pestered a pro shop employee about the radar forecast around a thunderstorm cell and I'll show you a liar. Our anxiety over rounds and even whole trips ruined by bad weather makes us this way.

Starting in a few weeks and lasting through much of the winter, one of the most turbulent long-term weather events in recent human history is expected to unfold. It will have impacts beyond golf, too, of course. And whether you have a long-anticipated trip planned or are just hoping to squeeze the most golf you can out of your home life, the upcoming El Niño/Southern Oscillation event is likely to have an effect on your near- and medium-future rounds.

"El Niño" and its counterpart, "La Niña," refer to cycles of warming and cooling, respectively, in the equatorial waters of the eastern Pacific Ocean. An El Niño event is said to be underway when the temperature of those surface waters rises by more than .5 °C for an extended period. It may not sound like much, but this beyond-normal warming affects trade winds in the region, which has knock-on atmospheric affects on weather systems that work their way from west to east, eventually sweeping across North and South America. The strongest recent El Niño cycles took place in the winters of 1997-1998, 2015-2016 and 2018-2019.

Now, El Niño is back with a vengeance. According to climatologists, the cycle expected to peak starting in October 2026 and carry towards the beginning of 2027 has as much as a 70% chance to be the strongest in measured history. "El Niño is strengthening, with a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026-27," reads the official synopsis from the National Weather Service.

The NWS's prediction for the warming for this coming El Niño event calls for ultimate sea temperature increases of as much as 2.0 to 2.5°C - four to five times the minimum threshold for declaring such a cycle. The cascading effects of such steep warming could be profound and, frankly, may well carry consequences that go far beyond a few disrupted golf trips.

But for context's sake, here are some things golfers might need to know as they plan their fall and winter schedules.

If there is a top-line generalized prediction for a typical El Niño winter, it is that America's "Sun Belt" region, from Florida west to Southern California, is likely to be wetter than normal, and cooler in many cases as well. Obviously, that is bad news for virtually all of America's premier fall/winter/spring golf destinations. Myrtle Beach and Hilton Head Island in South Carolina, all of Florida and even typically drier regions like Texas, Arizona and even the southern California desert could see significantly more rain than they typically do. Could the 2027 PGA Tour season begin with pros donning rain jackets at PGA West in La Quinta? It is entirely possible.

If you have trips to any of these destinations planned for October through at least December of 2026, you should consider shoring up your rain gear situation. High-end rain jackets and pants are not cheap, but the good ones are extremely effective and last several years. Galvin Green and Kjus are generally regarded as the best brands on the market at the moment, but be prepared to spend $1,000 or more for a fully waterproof and swing-friendly top/bottom outfit. It is a heavy hit on the wallet, but thinking of it a long-term insurance policy against on-course misery and lost bucket-list rounds might make the cost easier to swallow.

While the Sun Belt is going to be wetter and, in many instances, colder than usual in the fall and winter of 2026-2027, much of the northern half of the United States could tell a different story. During strong El Niño cycles, the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, in particular, have tended to see warmer-than-average temperatures, while some warmer but especially drier-than-average conditions tend to emerge across the Midwest and Northeast.

Growing up in Connecticut, I distinctly remember the 1997-1998 El Niño season producing several winter days with temperatures higher than 60 degrees, which is very unusual for New England. If you live in the northern half of the continental U.S. - even in Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota - you might just luck into a few more golf-playable late-fall and winter days than you are used to.