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The PGA Tour season concludes with a new-look Tour Championship at East Lake. After six years of using the starting strokes model, where the FexExCup points leader would start the week at 10-under, the Tour decided their final event needed a shakeup. This year, all 30 players will start the week at even par and the winner will claim the season long title and $10 million.
It’s an intriguing change that simplifies the viewing experience for the fans. It also makes betting on the Tour Championship easier for the casual bettor. Long shots are back in the mix after having essentially no chance for the last six years. How will the new format play out? Would a surprise winner be good for the Tour?
The more questions we have, and the more things change, one thing stays the same; Scottie Scheffler. Scheffler enters the week +175 to win after his dazzling victory at the BMW Championship (meaning a $10 bet would win $16.5). That's not far off from the +110 number he started the Tour Championship week at in 2024 when he began the tournament at 10-under. Scottie’s “Tiger-esque” lines symbolize that he is as dominant as ever, and it’s hard to argue.
If you are looking to bet this week on outright winners for the 2025 Tour Championship, I think you have two options.
- Just bet on Scottie Scheffler only. Not only does he not have a weakness, he is elite at every aspect of the game. He struggled a bit early in his career at East Lake, specifically with the putter. But last year he eased any worries that he underperforms there with a 20-under net week leading to a four-shot victory and his first Tour Championship title. Ask yourself this question, if they played this exact tournament 5 times, how many times do you think Scottie would win? If you said 2 times or more than there is some value on betting Scottie at +175 (implied odds of around 36% to win).
- Pick two to three players with longer odds who fit East Lake well. It’s still a tiny 30-man field and the change in format adds another wrinkle. Let’s look at a couple good picks this week.
All odds are the best available at time of publishing at oddschecker.com.
Russell Henley (28-1)
The statistical category that carries the most weight at East Lake is driving accuracy. The native Georgian finds fairways consistently and has a good history at East Lake. He finished T3 back in 2017, when it was a standard stroke play event still. Last year he finished T4 after a final round 62.
Sam Burns (28-1)
Burns is coming off a solid showing at the BMW Championship where he finished T4. Burns is a phenomenal putter, even more so on Bermuda greens, and has solid showings at East Lake in the past. He finished T4 net in 2023 and starting the week off level with the competition is a nice change for Burns who has been chasing in the past. The combination of an elite putter and accurate driver for the last month or so makes Bermuda Burns a solid pick this week.
Shane Lowry (65-1)
A buy low spot for Lowry here. He wouldn’t have been anywhere close to 65-1 earlier this summer, but a rough last five events plummeted his odds. He’s an accurate driver of the golf ball and he fared well in his East Lake debut last year with a T8 net finish. I don’t think Shane should have the sixth worse odds and that makes him worth a flier to snap back into his May form for a week.
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