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The Open Championship returns to Royal Portrush's Dunluce links for the third time ever and the second time in the past six years. At a venue with limited course history and a championship that has historically been unpredictable for a variety of reasons, this Open feels a little more ‘open’ than the first three majors.
But the oddsmakers still fancy the top two players in the world by a significant margin over the second tier of contenders.
Scottie Scheffler (+450) enters as a significant favorite, and for good reason. He’s finished 8th or better in his last ten starts and has been trending upwards on links courses, including his career best T7 finish last year at Royal Troon.
Rory McIlroy (+700) re-emerged from his brief post Masters slump with a second-place finish at the Scottish Open last week. He’s looking to avenge his disappointing 2019 Open when an opening hole snowman led to an opening round 79 and a missed cut, despite a valiant effort.
They have won three of the four tournaments I previewed this year, and I have yet to pick them any of those weeks. If either were to win they would be the shortest pre-tournament odds to claim the claret jug since Tiger Woods in 2006. I’ll be consistent and pass again given the unpredictable nature of links golf.
Here are a few of my favorite plays for this week at Royal Portrush. All odds are the best available according to oddschecker.com.
Viktor Hovland to win (30-1)
Viktor has been elite from tee to green and especially on approach shots this season. The only player better has been Scottie Scheffler, according to data golf. Viktor also has shown comfort in links golf finishing in the top 15 in three of his four Open appearances. The slower greens and creativity required are a great fit for his game. He is my pick to win this week, removing his name from the top of the “best players to not win a major” list.
Tommy Fleetwood Top 5 (+550)
I wanted to include Tommy in the outright section, but couldn’t do it. Tommy’s quest for his first PGA Tour win has similar parallels to Rory’s journey for his 5th major. Could his collapse at the Travelers Championship be the equivalent of Rory’s late stumble at Pinehurst No. 2 in 2024 that fueled him more than ever to win at Augusta National? I truly do believe it could be. Tommy getting his first PGA Tour win at a major would make a lot of sense. I think he follows up his second place finish in 2019 with another top 5 this week.
Chris Gotterup Top 20 (+280)
I am going to try riding the hot hand again at a price that seems like great value. Gotterup has been a data golf darling for much of this year and that finally came to fruition on the course at the Scottish Open. Royal Portrush does favor the long hitters, so I see no reason he can’t contend again. The last three Open champions all finished top 15 the week prior at the Scottish and Phil Mickelson completed the double in 2013, so there is precedent for the links warm up carrying over to the year’s final major.
Matt McCarty Top 20 (+800)
McCarty has shown this year that when he makes cuts he consistently finishes inside the top 20. His tactical approach at Augusta led to a top 15 finish and I believe links golf will suit his game well. He finished just outside the top 20 at the Scottish Open last week and at +800 he is well worth a top-20 play.
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