2024 PGA Championship expert picks: Who will win at Valhalla Golf Club in Louisville, Kentucky?

After Scottie Scheffler’s performance at this year’s Masters Tournament -- where he won by four shots with some remarkable iron and wedge play down the stretch -- it’s obvious who the overwhelming favorite on the odds board is at this year’s PGA Championship May 16-19 at Valhalla Golf Club outside of Louisville, Ky. He is the undisputed no. 1 player in the world. It's not even close right now.

The bigger question, of course, is who are the players most likely to challenge him on this Jack Nicklaus Signature design that’s playing host to the PGA of America’s premier event for the fourth time? Scheffler, who has seen a recent stretch of wins and performances that are starting to remind us a little of Tiger Woods in his heyday, was unflappable in his Masters win. For the most part, he was dominant in every aspect of his game, driving the ball long and in the fairway, and hitting incredible approach shots tight to some of the toughest pins on the course, including hole nos. 14 and 17 to secure birdies during the final round, giving him a nice cushion coming into 18. He finished 11-under par for the tournament.

Before his Masters victory, Scheffler won The Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass and the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill. The week after the Masters, he followed by capturing the RBC Heritage at Harbour Town Golf Links in Hilton Head S.C. Right now, there's really not a weakness in his game, whether it's ball striking or putting or simply the way he thinks his way around a golf course. He is leading the tour in multiple categories, including scoring average, total strokes, and greens in regulation.

Of course, you have to consider other heavyweights of recent years. Brooks Koepka is the defending champion after conquering Oakmont in 2023, and he's fresh off a LIV Golf win. However, because most golfers don’t see him week in and week out following his poor performance at the Masters, it's hard to gauge which Koepka will show up. Three of Koepka’s major victories have come at the PGA Championship, so this event is a setup be definitely likes.

Justin Thomas won the PGA Championship two years ago at Southern Hills, but he has struggled as of late to find the form he once had. The same could be said of Jordan Spieth, who has battled a wrist injury the last couple years.

Ludvig Aberg, an outstanding young Swedish player who finished solo second in this year's Masters, was a name to watch until he withdrew from the Wells Fargo with an undisclosed knee injury. He plans to play at the PGA, but his health issues leave his chances in doubt. A year ago, the now 24-year-old Aberg was playing college golf at Texas Tech. A few months later he was a big part of the Europeans’ dominant Ryder Cup victory over the Americans. He followed that with a win at The RSM Classic on the PGA Tour and he’s been turning in solid performances all year until this mishap. Aberg, with his solid fundamentals, beautiful golf swing and cool demeanor, seems to be a star in the making, so he could be a sleeper pick at the PGA Championship.

Who else do we like?

Based on his Masters performance (T4) and his reputation as a great iron player, Collin Morikawa (who won the PGA in 2020 at TPC Harding Park) could be in the mix come Sunday. And despite having not won a major in a decade, Rory McIlroy, who recently sought help from renowned coach Butch Harmon, could be a factor, too. After all, McIlroy won at Valhalla when the PGA Championship was last played there in 2014, with a one-stroke victory over Phil Mickelson. It was his last and fourth major victory, at age 24. And this year, he was looking to complete the Major Grand Slam at Augusta National, finishing T22 at 4-over-par.

Other players to consider include Jon Rahm, Xander Schauffele, Victor Hovland, Patrick Cantlay, Tommy Fleetwood and Max Homa. The last two who made a pretty good run at the Masters and wound up in tie for third with Morikawa at 4-under par.

I also like what we’ve seen lately from Will Zalatoris, who lost in a playoff two years ago to Justin Thomas at Southern Hills. Zalatoris, who has come back from back surgery, has finished second in a major three times. He had a decent showing at the Masters at even par and tied for ninth place.

Of course, if Bryson DeChambeau with his incredible length puts it together for four rounds, he’ll be dangerous. Shortly after putting new irons into play -- a set of 3D printed clubs from Avoda Golf that have a bulge-face design to minimize sidespin -- DeChambeau raced out to the first-round lead with a 7-under-par 65 at the Masters. He faded on the weekend, however, but still managed a top-10 finish.

And then, of course, there’s Tiger Woods, winner of 15 majors, including the 2000 PGA Championship at Valhalla. It was one for the ages as Woods outlasted journeyman Bob May in a three-hole playoff. I was there on the 18th hole in the playoff when Woods hit a tee shot that looked like it might not be findable. I still can’t figure out how it mysteriously bounded back into play.

As for Woods’ chances this year, the 48-year-old did make his 24th consecutive cut at Augusta National, which broke the record set by Fred Couples and Gary Player. But he struggled on the weekend, finishing 15-over-par. Considering it was his first full tournament of 2024, Woods’ fans should be somewhat encouraged. His chances of winning at Valhalla are slim but not impossible.

Valhalla, a private club that used to be owned by the PGA of America before being sold in 2022, is certainly a tough championship test. There are few flat spots, lots of doglegs, streams, water features and plenty of mature hardwoods throughout the course. The PGA of America sets up the PGA Championship somewhere between Augusta and U.S. Open conditions, which means the rough will be troublesome but not overly so. While accuracy is always a virtue, players who can hit it far should have some advantage on this golf course, a par 72 that stretches out to around 7,500 yards from the tips.

In case you’re wondering, the total purse for the 2024 PGA Championship is expected to be close to $20 million with around $3.5 million to the winner. By comparison, this year’s Players Championship, golf’s so-called fifth major, had a purse of $25 million with $4.5 million going to Scheffler, who also raked in $3.6 million for his victory at Augusta National this year.

The 2024 PGA Championship will be televised by CBS with additional coverage by ESPN and ESPN+. The Golf Channel and Peacock will air Live From the PGA Championship all week. Visit our full guide on how to watch the 2024 PGA Championship here.

The event is sold out. Tickets for the 2024 PGA Championship are available, however, on the secondary market like Seatgeek and Stubhub, starting at around $175 for Thursday play, up to $250 or so for the weekend.