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The best players in the world are in store for a grueling test at Oakmont where 5 inch rough and complex greens that will run 15 on the stimpmeter could result in a winning score over par (if the club gets what it wants). Everything is set up for carnage and a drama-filled weekend that golf fans will love.
For the second straight year, Scottie Scheffler enters in incredible form and as an overwhelming favorite. He heads to Oakmont as a +275 favorite, the shortest odds in a major since Tiger was +175 at the 2009 U.S. Open. Scottie has won three of his last four starts, all by 4 or more shots, and has added an above average to hot putter to go along with his generational ball-striking. All of that adds up to him being able to run away from elite fields with his B- game.
But is he worth taking at such a short number? I believe so, and he is my pick to win this week, getting him three-quarters of the way home to the Grand Slam. Betting Scottie at +275 should limit your bets on players to win drastically, so for our other bets this week we are going to venture into different markets to avoid Scottie at the top. Here are a few of our favorite plays this week at the 2025 U.S. Open at Oakmont.
All odds are the best available according to oddschecker at the time of publishing.
Collin Morikawa Top 5 finish (+500)
Accurate driving and elite iron play is a great recipe for success at Oakmont. Distance is always beneficial, but this week hitting fairways is paramount if you want to content. Morikawa’s ball-striking prowess should keep him towards the top of the leaderboard well into Sunday and it feels like we are getting a slight discount due to him not contending seriously for a tournament since Bay Hill.
Corey Conners Top 10 finish (+500)
Another +500 prop, which shockingly is almost double the payout as Scottie to win. Conners is basically Collin Morikawa-lite: An elite iron player who wears out the center cut line of fairways throughout the week. Solid recent form that features nine top 25s in his last 10 starts is a positive sign that he can find his way towards the top of the leaderboard at a tough test. He’s also finished top 25 in his last four starts in majors, including a T9 at Pinehurst No. 2 last year.
Keegan Bradley Top 20 finish (+250)
The U.S. Ryder Cup captain has been playing some really solid golf of late, third in strokes gained tee the green the last three months according to data golf. His driving of the golf ball has been Scottie-esque the past few months ... pretty long and pretty straight. He comes into this week on the heels of two top 10s on challenging courses (Muirfield Village and Quail Hollow). Can the American captain contend in the nation’s Open just 400 miles from where he will captain (and perhaps play…) in September? I believe so!
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