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We've made it to THE PLAYERS Championship week and what many consider the kicking off point to the golf season for casual golf fans. Historically known as the strongest field in golf, although that has changed with LIV, it still has the best field of any PGA TOUR event.
This year marks the sixth time the event has been played since it moved on the schedule from May to March back in 2019. The five winners since the change have all been top 10 in the world golf rankings at the start of the week (Scottie Scheffler x2, Cam Smith, Justin Thomas and Rory McIlroy). Showing some precedence for the cream rising to the top at the PLAYERS Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass in March. So much for March Madness.
TPC Sawgrass is known for its iconic island green 17th and a closing stretch that tests the nerves as much as any course anywhere. From a course profile perspective, it rewards accuracy off the tee and excellent iron play more so than other metrics.
Of course, that profile suits the two-time defending champ and best player in the world very well (every course does), but I am going to pass on Scottie Scheffler this week at +475. The odds are just a little too low for Scottie who is not yet playing at his “best golf since Tiger” level since returning from the Christmas day hand injury.
I would be more enticed to take Rory McIlroy at +800, but left him off the card as well this week. Below are four players that I think are worth a bet at the 2025 PLAYERS Championship.
All odds listed are the best odds available at time of publishing via oddschecker. And a reminder that I am a casual bettor who likes to look at the data to make educated bets/guesses each week, but certainly not a pro.
Collin Morikawa 16-1 (Bet $10 to win $160)
Morikawa’s game is a near perfect fit for TPC Sawgrass, which makes his best finish in four tries being T13 a bit puzzling. But past record is not going to scare me away. Morikawa is fourth in approach and first in driving accuracy on Tour in the last 6 months according to data golf. His close call last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill Club & Lodge shows he is in great form. I would be surprised if he wasn’t in contention late on Sunday.
He also fits a trend of winners who either finished top 10 the week before at Bay Hill or did not play the week before. The Arnold Palmer Invitational has become one of the most grueling tests on Tour and puts a similar level of importance on tee to green ball-striking as Sawgrass does. Collin passed that test and has shown he is my pick to win this week.
Tommy Fleetwood 30-1
Tommy Fleetwood’s quest for his first PGA Tour win has reached the point where his name sits a top almost every list of “best player to not have a PGA Tour win.” Despite the lack of the wins, Tommy always seems to be in the mix because of his elite ball-striking. He is 4th in strokes gained tee to green the last 6 months according to data golf. Pair that with a well above average short game and I once again am falling for Tommy Fleetwood to contend in a big event. Tommy has failed to finish top 20 at The PLAYERS in his last 4 tries, but does have top 10s from 2018 and 2019. A solid weekend at Bay Hill shows he is playing well enough to get back to his pre-COVID form at Sawgrass.
Plus, after plugging in a good amount of information into Chat GPT and asking for a semi-dark horse contender pick for this week, I was given the answer of Tommy Fleetwood. We will see if AI is onto something.
Sepp Straka 60-1
Sepp is playing the best golf of his career of late and is a popular pick most weeks in the mid-tier odds range because of his elite iron play. He won early this year at The American Express and shot the lowest score in the field at Bay Hill the final three rounds, bouncing back from an opening round 77 to finish T5. At 60 to 1, Straka is a solid play this week at a course that rewards his top-10 driving accuracy more than most.
Nick Taylor 150-1
Long shots have not fared well since the return to March in 2019, but there is history further back with first time winners Craig Perks and Tim Clark. More recently Si Woo Kim’s win in 2017 had much longer odds than Taylor’s 150-1.
Taylor fits the profile of accurate off the tee and exceptional iron play that I’ve continued to mention throughout. He won earlier this year at the Sony Open and has yet to miss a cut. If a few breaks go his way and a couple putts fall, Taylor could easily be in contention come the weekend. Which is all you can ask for with an 150-1 ticket.
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